Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics 2019-11-19T08:14:24+00:00 Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Open Journal Systems <p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics (ISSN: 2582-0230)</strong> aims to publish high-quality papers (<a href="/index.php/AJPAS/general-guideline-for-authors">Click here for Types of paper</a>) in all areas of ‘Probability and Statistics’. By not excluding papers on the basis of novelty, this journal facilitates the research and wishes to publish papers as long as they are technically correct and scientifically motivated. The journal also encourages the submission of useful reports of negative results. This is a quality controlled, OPEN peer-reviewed, open access INTERNATIONAL journal.</p> Assessment of French Beans Production at Kariua in Kandara, Murang’a County- Kenya 2019-11-19T08:14:23+00:00 Wangui Patrick Mwangi Argwings Otieno Ayubu Anapapa <p>A sample survey research was conducted in November 2017 to January 2018 at Kariua area in Murang’a county, Kenya, with a sole aim to assess the current situation experienced by the French bean farmers in the area as well as form basis for further research, in which 43 farmers were interviewed. The parameters of interest were the average input levels of various factors (<em>manure, fertilizers</em> and <em>water</em>), average <em>spacing of the crops</em> in the field, the average <em>output of the beans</em>, the general <em>plants’ health</em>- all these were per crop point, <em>land sizes</em> under French beans cultivation as well as the <em>demographic factors</em> like <em>age, gender </em>and<em> family size</em>. The questionnaire was the main data collecting tool. Analysis of the data collected was carried out using both descriptive and inferential statistics: Using both R software and Ms-Excel. The results showed that farmers are experiencing very low yields at peak on average and poor plant health (<em>harvest=13.4 g, infected leaves= 8 </em>and<em> immature pods= 15</em>, all per crop point). Average <em>land size</em> under French beans farming, <em>D.A.P</em> and <em>C.A.N fertilizers</em> applied, <em>manures </em>applied, <em>crop spacing </em>and<em> water</em> for irrigation were found to be approximately <em>79.80 m<sup>2</sup>, 4.75 decigrams, 2.49 decigrams, 24.69 grams, 9.81 cm by 27 cm </em>and<em> 4.38 litres</em> respectively. Low yields and poor crop health, scarce resources, pests, infections, diseases and intercropping and were also evident in the region.</p> 2019-11-01T00:00:00+00:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Optimization of Yields and Yield Components of Sweet Potatoes (Ipomea batatas (L.) Lam) Using Organic Manure and Phosphate Fertilizer 2019-11-19T08:14:23+00:00 Ireri Daniel Mwangi Martin Miano Lucas Macharia <p>Sweet potato production has been faced with various constraints including small land sizes and inappropriate agronomic practices, especially on management of soil fertility. Many studies that have been carried out on the effects of application of farmyard manure on sweet potatoes yields have just been used to get the best treatment within the range of treatments used. However, the designs used in data analysis are not appropriate for optimisation process. Therefore, there is need to use an appropriate design that will optimise the yields within the limited available resources for sustainable production of sweet potatoes. The objective of this study was to determine the optimum operating settings and to optimise the yields and the yield components in sweet potatoes. The study was conducted at Chuka University horticultural demonstration farm. The experiment was laid out in a Randomised Complete Block Design and replicated three times. The treatments included cattle manure and poultry manure (0, 5, 10, 15 and 20 tons per hectare) and inorganic phosphate fertilizer (0, 20, 40, 60 and 80 tons of P<sub>2</sub>O<sub>5</sub> per hectare). Data was collected on number of tubers, tuber diameter, length and weight of tubers per plot. Central Composite Design (CCD) was applied in the optimization process. Data obtained was analysed using R statistical software and the second order mathematical model which described the response as a function of input variables, was generated. The study found that the optimal levels of inorganic phosphate, poultry manure and cattle manure that led to maximum yield were; 2.895 tons/ ha, 7.5 tons/ ha and 14.88 tons/ha, respectively. The study demonstrated that CCD can serve as an inexpensive tool in optimization of the sweet potato yield. The study was also useful to the farmers in the area of study since they can get information on the optimal levels of application organic manure and phosphate fertilizer that would lead to maximum yields.</p> 2019-11-01T00:00:00+00:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Survival Analysis of Cholera Patients a Parametric and Non-parametric Approach 2019-11-19T08:14:22+00:00 Umar M. Hassan A. A. Abiodun <p><strong>Aims: </strong>The aim of this study is to investigate survival probability of cholera patients who were under follow-up and identify significant risk factors for mortality.</p> <p><strong>Methodology: </strong>In this research, we present the basic concepts, nonparametric methods (the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test) and parametric method. Parametric AFT models (Exponential, Weibull, Lognormal and Log logistic) were compared using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC).</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>Recorded data of 513 patients were obtained from UNICEF Cholera Hospital for Internally Displaced Persons Camps within Maiduguri, Borno State. Non-Parametric and Parametric approach were used to estimate the survival probability of the patients and examine the association between the survival times with different risk factors. The analysis shows that some factors significantly contribute to longer survival time of cholera patients. These factors include being a female, age less than twenty, being vaccinated before the infection and mild degree of dehydration.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The vaccination, age, sex and degree of dehydration of a cholera patient affects its survival hence, much attention should be given to older patients, degree of dehydration and vaccine <em>(killed oral 01 with whole-cell with Bsubunit</em>) should be administered whenever there is outbreak. When carrying out survival analysis of this kind, a Weibull model is Recommended for used while if dealing with Accelerated Failure Time models.</p> 2019-11-05T00:00:00+00:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## An Application Using Stochastic Approximation Method for Improvement Specific Loss System 2019-11-19T08:14:22+00:00 Rasha. A. Atwa <p>In this paper, an application using the modified stochastic approxi-mation procedure which studied to answer the question for Robbins-Monroe procedure. The modified procedure depends on a new form. We use the case of loss system obey Negative Binomial distribution. The efficiency of the proposed procedure is calculated to determine the ways to improve the mentioned loss system, the results which are obtained show that our procedure can serve as a model of stochastic approximation with delayed observations. This new topic can be applied in many fields such as the biological, medical, life time experiments, and some industrial projects, to increase the production, where in our system we depend on, observe a lot items and this items are realized after random time delays. In this paper we referred to the conditions which improve the proposed loss system.</p> 2019-11-08T00:00:00+00:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Multivariate Time Series Modelling with Seasonal Univariate Components; Evidence from Nigeria GDP 2019-11-19T08:14:24+00:00 Taofikat Abidemi Azeez Yusuf Olufemi Olusola Hamzat Kayode Idris Salawu Monsuru Micheal <p>The patterns of GDP variables are graphically examined using time plot presented the time plot for the GDP variables concerning time presented a combined single time plot for all the considered GDP variables. The relationship, as well as the degree of relationship between/among the GDP variables, was further revealed by computing the pairwise correlation. Based on the output, each variable when crossed classified with itself have a strong positive correlation with an output of (1), while pairwise correlation reveals a positive figure with the least estimate being (0.3149), this implies that for all the variables there exist a positive correlation. All the pairwise relationship reveals a strong positive association with all the estimates revealing a value between (0.8-0.9) except ‘trade and industry' that shows a positive relationship but not strong with an estimate of (0.3149). The initial test in fitting a time series model is to examine the series for stationarity. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test revealed that ‘Agriculture’, ‘Construction’, and Services’” satisfies the requirement of stationarity while the series ‘industry and “Trade” are non-stationary initially but later became stationary after the application of the first difference transformation which was confirmed after the application of the ADF test to the first differenced series. The Johansen co-integration's Trace test was employed to determine the order of co-integration and it was revealed that the series are cointegrated hence presentation of the equation of integration. We presented the lag length estimation criteria which revealed that the lag length of order 5 is appropriate for the VAR model as suggested by Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Hannan-Quinn (HQ) Information Criteria, Schwarz Information Criteria (SC). The VAR<sub>(5)</sub> model was fitted for all the considered GDP variables.</p> 2019-10-22T00:00:00+00:00 ##submission.copyrightStatement##