Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics
https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS
<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics</strong> <strong>(ISSN: 2582-0230) </strong>aims to publish high-quality papers (<a href="https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS/general-guideline-for-authors">Click here for Types of paper</a>) in all areas of ‘Probability and Statistics’. By not excluding papers based on novelty, this journal facilitates the research and wishes to publish papers as long as they are technically correct and scientifically motivated. The journal also encourages the submission of useful reports of negative results. This is a quality controlled, OPEN peer-reviewed, open-access INTERNATIONAL journal.</p>Asian Journal of Probability and Statisticsen-USAsian Journal of Probability and Statistics2582-0230Modeling Self Help Groups’ Impact on Livelihoods in Murang’a East Sub-County: A Logistic Regression Approach
https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS/article/view/596
<p>According to the World Bank (2022), approximately 8.9 million people, or 17% of Kenya’s population, live below the poverty line of 1.9 USD on a daily basis, majority of them in the rural areas. This research aimed to analyze the impact of self-help groups on the livelihoods of rural areas of Kenya, with the goal of promoting sustainable livelihoods and reducing poverty. To achieve this, the study employed machine learning specifically the logistic regression algorithm to model the impact of self-help groups on livelihoods in Murang’a East sub-county. The study used primary data obtained through the issuance of structured questionnaires to SHG members, on their wealth status since joining the self-help groups on areas such as ability to save, access to credit services and acquiring assets, both income generating and household. A total of 969 members of self-help groups were issued with the questionnaire. The study’s findings helped identify the key predictors of members’ livelihoods and provided insights into how self-help groups influence them. The results of logistic regression indicated that 91.33% of the members had seen a significant improvement on their wealth status since joining self-help groups and the significant predictor variables were income generating assets, access to basic commodities and access to loans. The model’s accuracy was 88.04%. The ethical considerations in this study included ensuring no coercion or pressure to participate in the study and confidentiality and privacy of the respondents.</p>Jane Wangui Runo Ayubu Anapapa Euna Nyarige
Copyright (c) 2024 Author(s). The licensee is the journal publisher. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2024-02-292024-02-2926311210.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3596Analysing the Nexus between the Financial Sector and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Comparative Investigation using, BVAR, Linear Regression (OLS), and PPML Models
https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS/article/view/597
<p><strong>Aims: </strong>This study aims to analyze the complex relationship between the financial sector and economic growth in Nigeria. The study aims to provide comprehensive insights into this nexus by employing a comparative investigation using three distinct models: Linear Regression, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), and Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR).</p> <p><strong>Methodology:</strong> The study then applied three different models, with a specific focus on the BVAR(2) model, supported by various diagnostic tests and stability assessments. The inclusion of Linear regression analysis and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML) enhances the depth of the study, providing nuanced insights into the impact of specific financial sector variables on economic growth.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>The BVAR (2) model emerges as the optimal choice, demonstrating its reliability in capturing dynamic interactions and offering a powerful tool for policymakers. Specific results, such as the significant negative impact of D(CPS) in the regression analysis and the high R-squared in PPML, provide actionable insights into areas requiring policy interventions and underscore the substantial contribution of the financial sector to economic growth.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> The comparative assessment of model performances, favoring the BVAR model, guides future research and policy considerations, providing a reliable framework for further investigations. The study's insights are positioned as valuable for policymakers seeking to enhance economic growth through strategic interventions in the financial sector. Overall, the abstract succinctly encapsulates the aims, methodology, results, and concluding implications of the study on the nexus between the financial sector and economic growth in Nigeria.</p>Kingdom NwujuIfeoma Better Lekara-BayoSabinus Nnamdi Nwanneako Yvonne Asikiye Da-Wariboko
Copyright (c) 2024 Author(s). The licensee is the journal publisher. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2024-02-292024-02-29263132710.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3597Estimation of Reliability under Conditional Stress - Strength Setup based on Weibull Distribution
https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS/article/view/598
<p>The Weibull distribution has been extensively studied and applied across various fields due to its versatility in modeling a wide range of phenomena, especially in reliability engineering, survival analysis, and lifetime modeling. The concept of R<sup>l a,b </sup>, which represents a system's reliability in a conditional stress-strength setup, was proposed by Sabre and Khorshidian (2021). In this research, the problem of estimating reliability of the component is considered when strength variable X and stress variable Y follow independent Weibull distributions with common shapes and different scale parameters under conditional stress-strength setup. The maximum likelihood estimator, asymptotic confidence interval, Bootstrap estimators, Boot-p estimators, and Bayes estimator under-squared error loss function with associated highest posterior density interval are constructed for conditional stress-strength reliability. Simulation study is conducted to estimate mean square error (MSE) of estimator of conditional stress-strength reliability. The real data analysis is also carried out.</p>Architha MParameshwar V Pandit
Copyright (c) 2024 Author(s). The licensee is the journal publisher. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2024-03-082024-03-08263284310.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3598Mathematical Modeling of Intra-Communal Violence and Risk-Level Analysis. Case Study: Obiaruku Community in Delta State, Nigeria
https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS/article/view/599
<p>This paper aims to capture the dynamics of intra-communal violence in a deterministic model of ordinary differential equations, accordingly, the Authors found some interesting results. Lack of quality education, insecurity, bad roads, drugs and alcoholism, unequal representation in government and religious decay have been identified as key factors supporting intra-communal violence over the years. In this research work we built all these factors into a deterministic model describing intra-communal violence and performed some basic mathematical analysis such as positivity of solutions, existence of invariant region, violence-free equilibrium, violence-persistent equilibrium, basic reproduction number, sensitivity analysis, stability analysis and bifurcation analysis. It was revealed that the violence-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The model exhibits a forward bifurcation. The sensitivity analysis revealed that injustice and insecurity are highly sensitive parameters of the basic reproduction number. We also designed a questionnaire to ascertain the violence risk level of Obiaruku community in Delta State, Nigeria and the analysis revealed that the community is at the medium high risk level and thus violence may occur in most cases in the community. The results of the stability analysis and the sensitivity analysis showed that under certain conditions, a community can be brought to the maximum low risk level and the maximum high peace level.</p>Ossaiugbo Ifeanyi MarcusOkposo Newton Ighomaro Apanapudor Joshua Sarduana
Copyright (c) 2024 Author(s). The licensee is the journal publisher. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2024-03-152024-03-15263446610.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3599Spatial Regression Modeling of Child Survival on the Distribution of Births and Deaths in Kenya Based on the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) 2022
https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS/article/view/600
<p>This study used spatial mapping techniques to examine the distribution of births and deaths in Kenya and their relationship with various factors related to child survival, such as maternal age, education, wealth, and access to health services. Data were obtained from the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS). Spatial autocorrelation analyses were conducted to identify clusters of high or low child mortality rates. The results showed significant spatial autocorrelation in child mortality rates, indicating that neighboring areas had similar mortality rates. Factors such as maternal education, wealth, and access to health services were found to be significantly associated with child mortality rates. These findings can inform targeted interventions and policies to reduce child mortality rates in Kenya, particularly in areas with the highest risk of mortality.</p>Amos Kipkorir Langat Michael Arthur Ofori John Kamwele MutindaMouhamadou Djima Baranon Adeladza Kofi Amegah Lawrence Ndekeleni Kazembe
Copyright (c) 2024 Author(s). The licensee is the journal publisher. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2024-03-162024-03-16263677910.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3600An Investigation of Multi-server Queuing Analysis to Assess Hospital Healthcare Systems' Operational Effectiveness
https://journalajpas.com/index.php/AJPAS/article/view/601
<p>Prolonged wait (queue) times in medical outpatient departments are a growing concern in Nigerian hospitals/clinics, due to a variety of consequences such as overcrowding, patients leaving in anger without being attended to, and being stressed for not staying too long in the system. The primary goal of this paper is to research various techniques or methods for reducing long queues. Patients who wait for minutes, hours, days, or months to receive medical services may incur waiting costs. The time spent in the queue could have been better used elsewhere. This paper aims to determine an optimal server level while keeping total system costs to a minimum, including expected service costs and waiting costs in a multi-server system, to reduce patient congestion in the hospital. Data for the study was collected in two ways. The secondary method was first used to identify the most congested OPD among the numerous OPDs considered in the study. The performance measures costs were then calculated using primary data. The performance measures of the queuing system were calculated using TORA optimization software. MS Excel was used to calculate the costs and plot the charts. Based on the results of the analysis, it was suggested that one physician be added to the hospital's medical OPD to reduce patient overcrowding and wait times. As a result, this call for refocusing is issued to improve overall patient care in our cultural context while also meeting the needs of patients in our society.</p>Mohammed Idris UmarM. U. AdehiAbubakar, Muhammad Auwal
Copyright (c) 2024 Author(s). The licensee is the journal publisher. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2024-03-282024-03-28263808910.9734/ajpas/2024/v26i3601