Open Access Original Research Article

Modeling of Nigeria’s Economic Growth Rate: A Probability Distribution Fitting Approach

Eke, Charles N., Osuji, George Amaeze, Nwosu, Dozie Felix

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 1-17
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i124559

This study examined the probability distribution that best described the quarterly economic growth rate of Nigeria between 1960- 2015. The study collected secondary data from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin 2015 on Gross Domestic Product to compute the economic growth rate of Nigeria. Six theoretical statistical distributions were fitted via Normal Distribution, Logistic Distribution, Laplace Distribution, Cauchy Distribution, Gumbel (Largest Extreme Value) Distribution and Generalized Logistic Distribution. The Laplace Distribution fitted the data as confirmed by Kolmogorov Simonov goodness of fit test, Akaike Information Criteria and Bayes Information Criteria. The probabilities of economic growth rate behaviours were obtained from the best fit distribution. The analysis showed that the chance of obtaining a negative quarterly economic growth rate is 28%. The chance of an economic recession is 8%. Also, the probability of having a positive single digit quarterly economic growth rate is 46%. In addition, having a double digit positive quarterly economic growth rate is 26%.

 

Open Access Original Research Article

Bayesian Analysis of a Shape Parameter of the Weibull-Frechet Distribution

Terna Godfrey Ieren, Angela Unna Chukwu

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 1-19
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i124562

In this paper, we estimate a shape parameter of the Weibull-Frechet distribution by considering the Bayesian approach under two non-informative priors using three different loss functions. We derive the corresponding posterior distributions for the shape parameter of the Weibull-Frechet distribution assuming that the other three parameters are known. The Bayes estimators and associated posterior risks have also been derived using the three different loss functions. The performance of the Bayes estimators are evaluated and compared using a comprehensive simulation study and a real life application to find out the combination of a loss function and a prior having the minimum Bayes risk and hence producing the best results. In conclusion, this study reveals that in order to estimate the parameter in question, we should use quadratic loss function under either of the two non-informative priors used in this study.

 

Open Access Original Research Article

Modeling Agricultural Gross Domestic Product of Kenyan Economy Using Time Series

Musyoki M. Ngungu, Ong'ala Jacob, Wawire Noah

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 1-12
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i124563

The agriculture sector is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy. Thus, the sector has a significant role and contribution to GDP. In this study, Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to develop a model that best describes the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy. Agricultural gross domestic product data collected quarterly from 2000-2014 at constant 2001 prices is used for modeling. From the analysis, SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)4 was found to be the best model describing the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy.

Open Access Original Research Article

Socioeconomic Impact of Establishment of University of Embu on Small Scale Farmers in Nthambo Sub-Location, Kenya

Gogo Jacqueline Akelo, Cyrus Gitonga Ngari

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 1-15
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i124565

The University of Embu is one of the fast developing and recently chartered University in Kenya. It is located in Nthambo sub-location, which is an agricultural potential area. Universities establishment have considerable influence on the activities of community that stays around it. Despite the fact that several studies have been conducted on the socioeconomic impact of establishment of different Universities to the community they reside in, a research on the socioeconomic impact of establishment of University of Embu on small scale farmers in their agricultural activities have never been done. Given that the University of Embu has been established on the agricultural potential area, this study sought to investigate the impact of the establishment of University of Embu on agricultural resources and productivity, describe the community diversity and living standards of the community. Methodology used in this research was descriptive survey design and stratified random sampling technique obtaining a sample of 100 households which was proportionate to the population. Using SPSS software for cross-tabulation, the results indicated that: the rate of both livestock and crop production have been declining with supporting evidence of (60.2%) and (66%) of the households respectively, the community was diverse (87.2%) with majority being university students (68.1%), most of the small scale farmers had access to electricity connection (78.1%), even though  farming activity remains main economic activity of  community within the area, it has been declining from (95.3%) to (53.2%), business activities have increased from (3.5%) to (41.5%), most of the households (54.3%) have constructed rental houses majorly to earn more money (70.2%). The researchers recommend that Embu County government should adopt a policy such that the communities surrounding University of Embu must develop, implement and enforce mechanisms for effective preservation of productive agricultural land (i.e. Urban growth boundaries, purchase of development rights, exclusive agricultural zoning among others).

 

Open Access Original Research Article

A New Generalized Transmuted Inverse Exponential Distribution: Properties and Application

Uchenna U. Uwadi, Elebe E. Nwaezza

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 1-13
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i124568

In this study, we proposed a new generalised transmuted inverse exponential distribution with three parameters and have transmuted inverse exponential and inverse exponential distributions as sub models. The hazard function of the distribution is nonmonotonic, unimodal and inverted bathtub shaped making it suitable for modelling lifetime data. We derived the moment, moment generating function, quantile function, maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters, Renyi entropy and order statistics of the distribution. A real life data set is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model.