Open Access Short Research Article

A Comparative Study of Fourier Series Models and Seasonal -Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model of Rainfall Data in Port Harcourt

Wiri Leneenadogo, Sibeate Pius U

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 36-46
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2020/v10i330249

This study compares the Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model within Fourier time series model in modelling rainfall data in Port Harcourt Rivers State from 2000-2014. The time plot of the series showed Seasonality but a not obvious trend. The raw data is nonstationary at the level. Time plot of the seasonal differencing of rainfall at lag12 showed a stationary process with seasonality at lag 12 on the PACF and ACF of the series. The periodogram plot reveals that there exist both short and long term cycles within the period. The Fourier series and the seasonal autoregressive moving average models are reduced to 12month of seasonal component.( ) The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to select better models. The best model is the model that minimises the information criterion. It was observed that SARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,1)12 models have a minimum AIC value. Hence, SARIMA model performs better in modelling the rainfall data in Port Harcourt then the Fourier series models.

Open Access Original Research Article

On Second Order Slope Rotatable Designs under Intra-class Correlated Structure of Errors Using a Pair of Dissimilar Incomplete Block Designs

Sulochana Beeraka, Re. Victor Babu Bejjam

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 1-12
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2020/v10i330246

In this paper, a study of second order slope rotatable designs under intra-class correlation error structure using two suitably chosen dissimilar incomplete block designs like balanced incomplete block designs and symmetrical unequal block arrangements with two unequal block sizes are suggested. Further, we study the variance of the estimated slopes for different values of the intra-class correlation coefficient (ρ) and the distance from the centre (d) for v factors are suggested. Some illustrative examples are also suggested.

Open Access Original Research Article

Wiener Index of Fuzzy Graph by Using Strong Domination

Saqr H. AL- Emrany, Mahiuob M. Q. Shubatah

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 13-24
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2020/v10i330247

Aims/ Objectives: This paper presents a new method to calculate the Wiener index of a fuzzy graph by using strong domination number s of a fuzzy graph G. This method is more useful than other methods because it saves time and eorts and doesn't require more calculations, if the edges number is very larg (n). The Wiener index of some standard fuzzy graphs are investigated. At last, we nd the relationship between strong domination number s and the average (G) of a fuzzy graph G was studied with suitable examples.

Open Access Original Research Article

The Zubair-dagum Distribution

O. R. Uwaeme, N. P. Akpan

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 25-35
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2020/v10i330248

This article examines the flexibility of the Zubair-G family of distribution using the Dagum distribution. The proposed distribution is called the Zubair-Dagum distribution. The various mathematical properties of this distribution such as the Quantile function, Moments, Moment generating function, Reliability analysis, Entropy and Order statistics were obtained. The parameter estimates of the proposed distribution were also derived and estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The new distribution is right skewed and has various bathtub and monotonically decreasing shapes. Our numerical illustrations using two real-life datasets substantiate the applicability, flexibility and superiority of the proposed distribution over competing distributions.

Open Access Original Research Article

Analysis of Means by Ranks: Modification and Application in Contract Acquisition Analysis

Saad T. Bakir

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 47-60
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2020/v10i330250

Analysis of Means by Ranks is a nonparametric statistical test procedure that was developed in Bakir (1989) but has rarely been applied in practice. This paper modifies and applies Analysis of Means by Ranks to a case study data involving the comparison of three contract proposals. For comparison purposes, we analyze the same data using the well-known Analysis of Variance, Analysis of Means, and the Kruskal-Wallis test. Analysis of Variance and Analysis of Means are two parametric (assume data to be samples from normal populations) test procedures whereas Kruskal-Wallis and Analysis of Means by Ranks are two nonparametric (or distribution-free) procedures. This paper shows that the parametric tests fail to detect a significant difference among three contract proposals, while the nonparametric tests do.  The conclusions of the parametric tests are in doubt because a descriptive statistics analysis indicates that the required normality assumption is in doubt; the nonparametric conclusions are more trustful because the normality assumption is not required by nonparametric procedures.