Open Access Commentary

Use of Probability Theory and Its Perspectives

Frank Owusu, Rhoda Afutu, Isaac Assan-Donkoh, Stephen Atepor, Dennis Offei Kwakye

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 1-5
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2022/v19i130458

Probability Theory is a more of a game of chance. It has the condition of likely and unlikely certainties. This theory plays much in human life, in financial institutions, banking, education, governance, insurance, etc. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, entitlement analysis, and financial regulation. Weather patterns, for example, are used by meteorologists to forecast the likelihood of rain. Probability theory is used in epidemiology to investigate the relationship between exposures and the risk of adverse health outcomes. Probability is widely used in all sectors in daily life like sports, weather reports, blood samples, predicting the sex of the baby in the womb, congenital disabilities, statics, and many. In short, probability theory is about randomness; how will probability be applied in life and be enjoyed? Much needs to be done in inculcating it more in our day-to-day activities. We do more to make life a reality. Probability theory is a multifaceted discipline or art of which every life activity revolves around it.

Open Access Original Research Article

Revised Fixed-base Model for Estimation of Adult Mortality in Developing Countries

C. O. Okoro, E. C. Nwogu, F. U. Mgbudem

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 6-15
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2022/v19i130459

This paper presents a revised Fixed-base model (RFBM) for the estimation of adult mortality in developing countries. The RFBM also derives estimates of adult mortality from the age distributions of two censuses by 5-year age-groups. Unlike the original version, RFBM does not depend on person – years lived between exact ages 0 and 5 years  ( 5L0 ) and the mid-point population of those aged 0 – 4 years  ( 5N0 ) . Both 5L0 and  5Nare known to be affected by under-reporting in most developing countries. The estimates of the RFBM appear to have improved and compare favourably with estimates from other methods. We recommend the use of the model, especially when there is insufficient data for direct estimation of adult mortality in developing countries, among others.

Open Access Original Research Article

Designing Social Care Plans by Grouping Services and Patients in Mixed Cohorts: A Study using Regression versus Neural Nets

Sotirios Raptis

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 16-32
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2022/v19i130460

Aims: Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Nentwoks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar servicesters.

Study Design:  The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland that break down into 110 years series called factors.

Place and Duration of Study: NHSS and Abertay University, Dundee, from 2018 to 2020

Methodology: The paper discusses using ML and Neural Nentwoks (NNs). The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of backpropagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions.

Results:  Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health related health serices, and epidemilogical weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in chlildren. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Conclusion: Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term.

Open Access Original Research Article

Bivariate Stochastic Simultaneous Differential Equation Model for Heart Failure

Tirupathi Rao Padi, P. T. Sakkeel, V. Kanimozhi

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 33-40
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2022/v19i130461

Heart failure is one of the significant public health burdens in the world. According to WHO, 2 million people suer heart failure worldwide. In this study, we propose a bivariate stochastic model for heart failure disease progression and recovery process, which helps to understand the underlying mechanisms of the recovery process and suggests strategies to improve the performance of the public health system. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to understand the model behavior. 

Open Access Original Research Article

A New Family of Distributions in the Class of the Alpha Power Transformation with Applications to Income

R. M. Mandouh, E. M. Sewilam, M. M. Abdel-Zaher, M. R. Mahmoud

Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Page 41-55
DOI: 10.9734/ajpas/2022/v19i130463

In this paper, a new technique of the alpha-power transformation (APT) is used to propose a new class of probability distribution which is particularly useful for analysis of lifetime data. For the illustrative purposes of the new proposal, a special sub-model of the proposed family is considered in details. Various mathematical properties of the proposed model including quantile function, moments and moment generating function, residual life, mean residual life and order statistics are derived. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the unknown parameters. Finally A real data set is analyzed using the new distribution, and a simulation study is carried out to asses the performance of the new family.