ARIMA Modelling of Neonatal Mortality in Abia State of Nigeria
C. Nwokike, Chukwudike
Department of Statistics, Abia State University, Uturu, Nigeria.
C. Offorha, Bright
Department of Statistics, Abia State University, Uturu, Nigeria.
Obubu Maxwell *
Department of Statistics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria.
O. Uche-Ikonne, Okezie
Department of Statistics, Abia State University, Uturu, Nigeria.
C. Onwuegbulam, Chisom
Department of Mathematics, Abia State University, Uturu, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
In this study, the incidence neonatal mortality in Abia State of Nigeria was considered
using data from January 2014 to December 2018. The data was obtained from the Federal
Medical Centre, Umuahia in Abia State of Nigeria. The time plot of the data and the ADF
test conducted conrmed the series to be stationary. The plots of the ACF and PACF cut
o after lags 4 and 1 respectively which suggested ARIMA (1, 0, 4). However, diagnostic
checks led us to select ARIMA (1, 0, 1) as the best model to t the data and it was used to
make forecast. Our forecasted values indicate there will be a continous decline in the incidence
of neonatal mortality in Abia State of Nigeria. Much should be done to even expedite the decrease.
Keywords: FMC Umuahia, Neonatal mortality, ARIMA, stationarity, ADF test, time series.