Sarima Modeling of Monthly Temperature in the Northern part of Ghana
Emmanuel Ayitey *
Department of Mathematics and ICT, Shama Senior High School, P.O. Box 30, Shama, Western Region, Ghana.
Justice Kangah
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Adiembra Senior High School, P.O. Box 16, Sekondi, Western Region, Ghana.
Frank B. K. Twenefour
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, Takoradi Technical University, P.O.Box 256, Takoradi, Ghana.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The Sarima model is used in this study to forecast the monthly temperature in Ghana's northern region. The researchers used temperature data from January 1990 to December 2020. The temperature data was found to be stationary using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The ACF and PACF plots proposed six SARIMA models: SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,0) (12), SARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0) (12), SARIMA (1,0,1) (1,0,0) (12), SARIMA (0,0,1) (1,0,0) (12), SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,0,1) (12), SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,0,1) (12). The best model was chosen based on the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AICs) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) values. The Ljung-Box data, among others, were used to determine the model's quality. All diagnostic tests are passed by the SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,0) (12) model. As a result, the SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,0) (12) is the best-fitting model for predicting monthly temperatures in Ghana's northern region.
Keywords: SARIMA, ADF, KPSS, AC, Box-jenkins, weather report northern region, PACF