Modeling Agricultural Gross Domestic Product of Kenyan Economy Using Time Series
Musyoki M. Ngungu *
Department of Mathematics, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kenya
Ong'ala Jacob
Department of Mathematics, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kenya
Wawire Noah
Kenya Agricultural Livestock and Research Organization, Kenya
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The agriculture sector is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy. Thus, the sector has a significant role and contribution to GDP. In this study, Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to develop a model that best describes the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy. Agricultural gross domestic product data collected quarterly from 2000-2014 at constant 2001 prices is used for modeling. From the analysis, SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)4 was found to be the best model describing the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy.
Keywords: Agriculture, seasonal ARIMA, GDP, time series