A Study on the Combination Prediction of Anhui Residents’ Consumption Level Based on the IOWA Operator
Zihan Li *
School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, Anhui Province, 233030, China.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Aims: In order to study the future trend of Anhui residents’ consumption level and predict the consumption level of Anhui residents in the next three years (2022-2024), this paper constructs a combination prediction model based on the induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator.
Study Design: This paper selects the national resident consumption level in Anhui province from 2000 to 2021, which covers a period of 21 years. Based on the data, an IOWA operator combination prediction model is constructed using a multiple regression model, ARIMA (2,2,0) model, and machine learning decision tree model. This is a qualitative analytical study which set the sum of squared errors as dependent variables and error value of different single item prediction method as independent variables.
Place and Duration of Study: This paper selects the national resident consumption level in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2021.
Methodology: This paper constructs a combination prediction model based on the IOWA operator based on the multiple regression model, ARIMA (2,2,0) model, and machine learning decision tree model. The combination prediction method that minimizes the sum of squared errors is used to predict the consumption level of Anhui residents in the next three years (2022-2024), and the effectiveness of the IOWA operator-based combination prediction model is evaluated.
Results: This study finds that the prediction accuracy of the IOWA operator-based combination prediction model is generally greater than that of individual prediction models, and the sum of squared errors is generally significantly lower than that of individual prediction models.
Conclusion: The prediction results show that the consumption level of Anhui residents in the next three years will not fluctuate greatly, but will have a trend of slight increase. The results of this study can be helpful for the government to improve the consumption level of residents in Anhui Province.
Keywords: Anhui Province residents’ consumption level, single-factor prediction, IOWA operator, combination prediction model