Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics

Wheat production is an important part of crops, and it is influenced by environmental factors that require advanced statistical techniques for accurate evaluation. This study enumerates the effects of rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture on the growth of wheat in Sokoto using a linear mixed model. This research aims to examine the variability in wheat yield in response to these environmental factors on random effects. The study also illustrates the factors based on variation across different blocks. The data was collected from 10 different environmental blocks, which include temperatures ranging from 24°C to 41°C, soil moisture of 10% to 45%, and rainfall of about 35mm to 150mm, respectively. Due to unobserved heterogeneity, random effects were used on the region and duration by capturing the variability in the growth of wheat due to temporary and spatial differences. The mixed effects model differentiates between environmental systemic and random functions. The model outcome deduced that rainfall has a positive impact on wheat cultivation with (\(\beta\) = 0.39), p-value less than 0.001, the temperature also shows a negative effect on (\(\beta\) = -0.00), p-value less than 0.982. The soil moisture shows a slight impact (\(\beta\) = 0.04), p-value less than 0.05. The research suggested that optimal irrigation can boost the cultivation of wheat in the state. It also provides a robust framework by formulating policies for farmers to improve wheat production.