Determinants to Increase in Type 2 Diabetes in Nairobi Metropolitan Area
Ouma Calvince Odhiambo
*
Department of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
Idah Orowe
Department of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Nairobi’s metropolitan area poses a significant public health concern, driven by a combination of genetic predispositions and lifestyle factors. This cross-sectional study, conducted at Kenyatta National Hospital, investigates the contributors to the increasing T2D cases within this urban population. Key risk factors examined include age, family history, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and lifestyle behaviors such as physical inactivity and smoking. The study employed both descriptive and inferential statistical analyses, with a sample comprising 47% female participants and 53% male participants. Notably, 71% of participants lacked a family history of diabetes, suggesting lower hereditary risk for some. Multiple linear regression analysis was used, with HbA1c levels as the dependent variable and other factors as independent variables. Results revealed a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.79, indicating a robust model fit, and an R-squared value of 0.62, implying that 62% of the variation in HbA1c levels is attributable to the independent variables. Significant predictors included age, family history, waist circumference, and BMI, all positively associated with higher HbA1c levels at a 95% confidence interval. However, education level and physical activity showed no significant predictive value. These findings highlight the role of modifiable risk factors in T2D prevalence and underscore the need for targeted public health interventions in Nairobi to address this growing epidemic.
Keywords: Epidemic, multiple linear regression analysis, T2D, biostatics