The Effect of Exclusive Breastfeeding on Child Survival Using Modified Kaplan Meier Model (MKMM)
Moses Longji Dashal *
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Bauchi, Nigeria.
Kazeem Eyitayo Lasisi
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Bauchi, Nigeria.
Kaneng Eileen Longji
Department of Mass Communication, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: In Survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier estimator serves as a tool for measuring the frequency or the number of patients surviving medical treatment. Kaplan Meier estimates of survival data have become a better way of analyzing data in cohort study. Kaplan- Meier (K-M) is a non-parametric estimates of survival function that is commonly used to describe survivorship of a study population and to compare two study populations.
Aims: This research study is aimed at reducing the morbidity and mortality rate of children less than 6 months.
Methodology: 58,609 children less than six months were Exclusive Breastfed from the database. The analysis is done using both K-M and the modified K-M model to examine the effects of Exclusive Breastfeeding. The AIC and BIC was also used as the information criteria.
Results: Our results revealed that the K-M model 0.998566822 as the estimated survival probability of children under the ages of six months. Also showing, Exclusively Breastfed children stand the chance of 99% survival.
The modified K-M model also revealed 6.98276443909739 as the estimated survival probability, due to initiation of milk substitute and food supplement into the breastfeeding pattern. Showing about 70% chances of survival. Implying about 30% of the existence in one disease or the other or the risk of dying before the age of 5 years.
From the information criteria, the AIC (2.3119452169420) and BIC (7.8478797677756) in the Modified K-M are both lower compared to Existing Kaplan Meier (4.0012457354876) and (9.5371847322969) respectively. Modified K-M stand as the best model in knowing the types/amount of food to be added to breastfeeding pattern.
Conclusion: So far, the Modified Kaplan Meier Model has been verified and the findings agree that the life expectation will be improved by 99% if children are fed exclusively with breast milk while the life span is been reduced that can lead to death by 30% if the children have a mix feeding which agrees with why Exclusive Breastfeeding should be done.
Keywords: Survival analysis, Kaplan Meier, exclusive breastfeeding, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion.